Weekly Outlook and Scheduled News/Events

The Volatility Index is still above the 4-year average even though it fell as the major indexes rose in the second half of last week. But if you look at the chart below, you will see that the implied volatility of the Volatility Index rose at the same time. This signals that while volatility expectations were falling, the market was becoming more uncertain about those expectations. The market does not like uncertainty. Now is a time for caution. November credit spreads are expensive, but the market is uncertain about the volatility expectations, shorter-term credit spreads are cheap when we need them to be expensive. Be patient and careful when analyzing new trade ideas.

Here is this week's currently scheduled news/events.